NCI document

Japanese nukes could counter China - politician

TOKYO, April 6 (Reuters) - The leader of Japan's opposition Liberal Party,
Ichiro Ozawa, said on Saturday it would be a simple matter for Japan to
produce nuclear weapons and surpass the military might of China if its
neighbour got "too inflated."

Inviting a sharp response from Beijing, which is sensitive to any signs
of militarism in Japan, Ozawa told a seminar in the southern city of
Fukuoka that "China is applying itself to expansion of military power."

"If (China) gets too inflated, Japanese people will get hysterical,"
Kyodo news agency quoted him as saying.

"It would be so easy for us to produce nuclear warheads. We have
plutonium at nuclear power plants in Japan, enough to make
several thousand such warheads," he said.

Ozawa said his statements, coming only days before Japanese
Prime Minster Junichiro Koizumi visits China, were meant to
encourage stronger ties between China and Japan, the only
country to have suffered a nuclear attack.

He said he made similar comments recently to a person he described
as being affiliated with the Chinese intelligence agency.

"I told that person that if we get serious, we will never be beaten
in terms of military power," he said.

Ozawa said Japan found itself in a difficult position.

"Northeastern Asia, in which both China and North Korea are
located, is the most unstable region in the world," he said.

"China is applying itself to expansion of military power in the
hope of becoming a superpower...following the United States."

Koizumi will visit China for three days from April 11 to attend
an economic conference on Hainan island, although he is also
expected to meet Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji.

Li Peng, chairman of China's parliament, who is on a visit
to Japan, said in an interview published in a regional newspaper
on Saturday he was optimistic about Japan-China relations.

Li said Japan and China, long resentful over its treatment
at the hands of Japanese invaders, may encounter difficulties
on the path to closer ties because the countries were so different.

"Even in such cases, the two nations can solve any problems
with effort and foresight," Li said in an interview with the
Kitanippon Press, a newspaper in western Japan.

Li's visit is one of several high-level exchanges between China
and Japan to mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment
of diplomatic ties in September 1972.

Ties have been strained in recent times by Koizumi's visit last
year to a shrine honouring Japan's war dead, including convicted
war criminals, and Japan's approval of a history textbook that China
and other Asian countries say downplays Japan's wartime aggression.

09:49 04-06-02

Japan 'could build 7,000 nuclear bombs'

Jonathan Watts in Tokyo Monday April 8, 2002 The Guardian

Japan has the technology and the plutonium to make thousands of
nuclear weapons, one of the country's most influential politicians
declared this weekend in comments that are likely to stir up the ire
of
both China and survivors of the wartime atomic bombings.

Ichiro Ozawa, the leader of the opposition Liberal party, made the
comments against a backdrop of increasing Japanese concern
about the economic and military rise of its Asian neighbour.

"China is applying itself to expand its military power in the hope
of becoming a superpower," he said. "If China gets too inflated,
the Japanese people will get hysterical."

However, he boasted that Japan would never lose a military
confrontation if it became serious about strengthening its defences.

"It would be so easy for us to produce nuclear warheads. We have
enough plutonium at nuclear power plants in Japan to make several
thousand such warheads," he said.

Although military analysts and anti-nuclear groups have long
claimed that Japan could develop nuclear weapons, politicians
usually steer clear of the subject, which rekindles painful memories
of
the 200,000 killed by the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The government has a non-nuclear weapons policy.

The timing is also sensitive because the Japanese prime minister,
Junichiro Koizumi, will visit China next week. Li Peng, chairman of
the Chinese parliament, is currently visiting Japan to mark the
30th anniversary of bilateral ties.

Mr Ozawa is known for rocking the boat with his uncompromising
statements and political tactics. In 1993, he led a defection that
pushed the Liberal Democratic party out of power for the first and
only time since 1955.

Three years ago, a member of his party was forced to resign as a
junior defence minister after calling for a parliamentary debate on
whether Japan should acquire a nuclear deterrent.

Mr Ozawa insisted, however, that his latest comments were aimed
at improving Japan-China relations.

Anti-nuclear campaigners welcomed the candidness of the
statement, saying that Japan's plutonium stockpile of 38 tonnes -
including material being reprocessed in the UK and France - was
part of an undeclared weapons programme able to make more than
7,000 warheads.

Shaun Burnie of Greenpeace International said: "[Ozawa] has
exposed the myths of it being a peaceful energy programme for
a resource-poor country."

Ozawa defends remarks on Japan as nuclear power

.c Kyodo News Service

NAHA, Japan, April 7 (Kyodo) - Opposition Liberal Party leader Ichiro
Ozawa on Sunday clarified earlier remarks hinting Japan could easily
become a nuclear power in the face of a Chinese military threat,
saying he meant Japan and China should avoid that outcome.

Ozawa said at a press conference in Naha, Okinawa's prefectural
capital, ''I told a deputy chief of staff of China's People's Liberation
Army that Japan could become a nuclear power with its technology
and economic might but that it would be tragic if such a thing
occurs and we must not let it happen.''

He said the Chinese military officer told him China's nuclear armament
and buildup of military forces is for self-defense.

''That's why I told him that such a view could apply to any nation
including Japan and prompt some Japanese to insist on a further
buildup for self-defense and nuclear armament,'' he said.

''You may well be surprised, but I'm against nuclear armament.
There's nothing beneficial to Japan politically,'' Ozawa told reporters.

Ozawa said Saturday in a speech delivered in Fukuoka city that
it would be simple for Japan to produce nuclear warheads and
surpass China in military power.

He said he made the same remarks during a recent encounter
with a Chinese intelligence official.

Ozawa emphasized in the speech that he wants to ''encourage
an environment in which Japan and China can coexist'' peacefully,
and said his statements were really meant to strengthen bilateral ties.

AP-NY-04-07-02 0848EDT

Ozawa remarks draw int'l criticism of Japan ...

WASHINGTON, Apr 09, 2002 (Kyodo) -- Antinuclear groups said Tuesday recent
remarks by Japanese opposition party leader Ichiro Ozawa confirmed Japan's
plutonium fuel plan poses the danger of being converted into a nuclear
weapons program.

The Washington-based Nuclear Control Institute (NCI) said Ozawa's statement
that Japan could easily produce nuclear warheads using plutonium recovered
from spent fuel from its commercial nuclear power reactors is technically
accurate.

"Ozawa's nuclear threat would be an extraordinary dangerous policy for Japan,
abandoning Japanese rejection of nuclear weapons under the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty, and it could destabilize all of Northeast Asia,"
Edwin Lyman, an NCI scientific director who is soon to be its president, said
in a statement.

In a lecture given in Fukuoka on Saturday, Ozawa, leader of the Liberal Party,
said, "If (China) gets too inflated, Japanese people will get hysterical. It would
be so easy for us to produce nuclear weapons -- we have plutonium at nuclear
power plants in Japan, enough to make several thousand such warheads."

Greenpeace International said Japan is expected to have more than 45,000
kilograms of plutonium by around 2006-2010.

That amount will be even larger if a new plutonium reprocessing plant under
construction in Rokkasho, northeastern Japan, is completed and operated, it said.

"Ozawa is right to state the potential of Japan to use its so-called peaceful
plutonium program for nuclear weapons purposes," Shaun Burnie of Greenpeace
International said in a statement. "He has exposed the myths of it being a
peaceful energy program for a resource-poor country."

2002 Kyodo News (c) Established 1945

China objects to Japanese politician's nuclear remarks

Tue Apr 9, 1:00 AM ET

BEIJING (Reuters) - China has condemned a speech by Japan's opposition
Liberal Party leader, Ichiro Ozawa, that claimed Japan could easily produce
nuclear weapons and surpass China's military might, state media said on Tuesday.

Ozawa's remarks, made at a seminar on Saturday, were irresponsible and
"contradicted hopes for peace and long-term friendship between the two
countries and peoples", the People's Daily quoted Foreign Ministry
spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue as saying.

"Ozawa's words were provocative, representing an outdated Cold War
mentality just as the two countries were celebrating the 30th anniversary
of the establishment of diplomatic relations," she said.

His remarks "ran opposite to the wishes of both Chinese and
Japanese peoples", she added.

Ozawa's speech came during a visit to Japan by China's parliament
chief Li Peng and only days before Japanese Prime Minster Junichiro
Koizumi visits China.

Ozawa said his statements were meant to encourage stronger ties
between China and Japan, the only country to have suffered a nuclear attack.

Koizumi will visit China for three days from April 11 to attend an economic
conference on Hainan island, although he is also expected to meet
Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji.

Li's visit is one of several high-level exchanges between China and Japan to
mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties in Sept. 1972.

Ties have been strained in recent times by Koizumi's visit last year to
a shrine honouring Japan's war dead, including convicted war criminals,
and Japan's approval of a history textbook that China and other Asian
countries say downplays Japan's wartime aggression.

Ozawa says nuclear weapons would not benefit Japan

TOKYO, Apr 10, 2002 (Kyodo via COMTEX) -- Opposition Liberal Party leader
Ichiro Ozawa said Wednesday that Japan would derive no benefits from
developing nuclear weapons.

Ozawa made the comment at a press conference following reports he said in a
lecture Saturday in Fukuoka that it would be a simple matter for Japan to
produce nuclear weapons and surpass China's military power.

"If China gets too inflated, Japanese people will get hysterical. It would be
so easy for us to produce nuclear warheads -- we have plutonium at nuclear
power plants in Japan, enough to make several thousand such warheads," he was
quoted as saying.

On Wednesday, he said he was embarrassed by the reports as they did not
reflect what he really meant.

He said he had recently told someone affiliated with the Chinese intelligence
agency not to force Japan to go nuclear by insisting that military expansion
is necessary for China for self-defense.

"What I want to see is coexistence and prosperity for Japan and China, based
on mutual trust," he said.

Asked why he did not meet Chinese parliamentary chief Li Peng during his
recent visit to Japan, Ozawa said, "As I believe just a formal meeting is a
waste of time, I politely declined to see him."

2002 Kyodo News (c) Established 1945

Japanese politician defends nuclear remarks

Wed Apr 10, 7:33 AM ET

By Teruaki Ueno

TOKYO (Reuters) - The leader of Japan's second-biggest opposition party
said on Wednesday he had been trying to encourage stronger ties with
China when he commented earlier that Japan could easily make nuclear
weapons and surpass Beijing's military might.

Inviting a sharp response from Beijing, which is sensitive to any signs
of militarism in Japan, Liberal Party chief Ichiro Ozawa told a seminar
on Saturday in the southern city of Fukuoka that "China is applying
itself to expansion of military power".

But on Wednesday, Ozawa said his statement was meant to encourage
mutual trust between China and Japan, the only country to have
suffered a nuclear attack.

"My remarks were dreadfully distorted and conveyed by some
mass media. I am terribly annoyed," Ozawa told reporters.

Kyodo news agency had quoted him as telling the seminar:
"If (China) gets too inflated, Japanese people will get hysterical.

"It would be so easy for us to produce nuclear warheads. We have
plutonium at nuclear power plants in Japan, enough to make
several thousand such warheads," he was quoted as saying.

China has condemned the politician's statement.

Ozawa's remarks were irresponsible and "contradicted hopes for peace
and long-term friendship between the two countries and peoples",
the People's Daily quoted Foreign Ministry spokeswoman
Zhang Qiyue as saying on Tuesday.

"Ozawa's words were provocative, representing an outdated Cold War
mentality just as the two countries were celebrating the 30th anniversary
of the establishment of diplomatic relations," she said.

His remarks "ran opposite to the wishes of both Chinese and
Japanese peoples", she added.

WARNING AGAINST MILITARY BUILDUP

On Wednesday, Ozawa said he had warned Chinese leaders,
including President Jiang Zemin (news - web sites), not to forge
ahead with a buildup of nuclear weapons when he visited Beijing last year.

"It is easy to produce nuclear weapons. Even high school
students can understand it," Ozawa said.

"It is easy to produce nuclear weapons technologically and
economically if Japan wants to do so politically," he said.
"I told them (Chinese leaders) not to let that happen."

Ozawa's latest comments came a day before Japanese Prime
Minster Junichiro Koizumi visits China.

Koizumi will visit China for three days from April 11 to attend an
economic conference on Hainan island, although he is also
expected to meet Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji.

Ozawa made the controversial remarks when Li Peng, chairman
of China's parliament, was in Japan on a week-long visit.

At Wednesday's news conference, Ozawa also said he had turned
down an offer to meet Li in Tokyo last week.

"I turned down the offer because I thought it was a waste of time
to hold talks full of formality," he said.

Ties between the two nations have been strained in recent times
by Koizumi's visit last year to a shrine honouring Japan's war dead,
including convicted war criminals, and Japan's approval of a history
textbook that China and other Asian countries say downplays
Japan's wartime aggression.

A Japanese Nuke: No Longer Unthinkable

China's military push has at least one Tokyo leader speaking openly
of entering an arms race, perhaps even developing nuclear capability

Something surreal happened over the weekend on the southern Japanese island of Kyushu. During an Apr. 6 speech, a leading Japanese opposition leader warned Beijing -- publicly -- that if it keeps up its over-the-top defense buildup, Japan would have no choice but to launch a nuclear-weapons program of its own. And then came this in-your-face kicker: Japan "will never be beaten in terms of military power."

This didn't come from some fringe right-winger. The words were spoken by former Liberal Democratic Party heavyweight Ichiro Ozawa, who now runs the tiny opposition Liberal Party, which is big on promoting economic reform and stronger national security. A decade ago, if someone of Ozawa's prominence had uttered the "N" word in such a cavalier way, all hell would have broken loose. First, the apologies, then unending calls to recant or resign.

The most extraordinary thing that happened since Ozawa let it rip: not very much. Sure, he isn't the force he used to be and, like any pol, he knows that making headlines once in a while is vital to staying in the public's consciousness. But Ozawa isn't a flame-thrower by nature. He's a pretty serious thinker about the future of Japan.

LINE IN THE SAND. His 1994 political manifesto, Blueprint For A New Japan, called for a more proactive foreign policy that would enable Japan to break out of its post-war passivity. This was bold stuff at the time. Even the CIA thought it worthy of translation before the English version was published. And foreign-policy bigwigs such as former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sang its praises.

That was eight years ago. The Japanese Establishment has always been loath to openly question its post-war pacifism, enshrined in the country's war-renouncing constitution. And I have to think the China specialists at Japan's Foreign Ministry winced when they read Ozawa's latest muscular quotes about checking any Chinese military threat in the region.

The fact the Japanese public didn't wince says a lot about the mood in Japan in this post-September 11 era. Not that there's an overwhelming movement afoot in Japan to go nuclear. Ozawa knows that. My guess is that he was simply laying down a marker for Beijing. Message: Japan won't stand idly by should China decide to try to build up an undisputed military position in the region.

PUBLIC SUPPORT. More broadly, Japanese leaders and the public at large are increasingly cognizant that they live in a far more dangerous world than that of the last decade. China is an ascendant power in the region, and its motives on the military front aren't entirely clear. Tokyo claims that North Korean agents have kidnapped Japanese citizens over the years, spy ships have infiltrated Japan's territorial waters, and Pyongyang has the long-range missile capability, possibly nuclear, to launch an attack on the archipelago.

It's not just Ozawa who is speaking out. Take Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who quickly responded to Washington's call to dispatch three Maritime Self-Defense Force ships to the Indian Ocean to provide logistical support for U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Koizumi has also called for a national debate about revising the occupation-era constitution to give Japan the clear right to wage war to defend its interests. A recent poll by the Daily Yomiuri newspaper revealed that some 57% of those canvassed favor revamping the constitution to make this clear. Polls going back seven years show more than 50% of Japanese have consistently backed the idea.

LOW ODDS. Already, Japan has a formidable navy and a defense budget of about $37 billion. It's investing in spy satellites and has the kind of high-tech finesse to jointly research missile-defense systems with the U.S. It surely has the capability of defending itself fully, should it chose to follow that route.

If Japan beefs up its security, it would probably become much harder for Tokyo to justify having 45,000-odd American troops based on Japanese soil. The hassles of hosting such a contingent of soldiers and equipment make the U.S. presence highly unpopular with the Japanese public, especially after a string of criminal allegations against U.S. soldiers involving local civilians. A stronger Japan would also likely oblige the Pentagon to find other bases, perhaps fall back to Guam, for its forward deployment in Asia.

Will the day come when Japan decides to join the nuclear club? That would be a historic step for a nation that suffered two nuclear attacks from the U.S. during World War II. I think the odds of Japan developing a nuclear weapon are pretty low. It would require a very serious threat before the country took such a fateful step. Anything short of that, rightly or wrongly, would cause an international uproar.

DANGEROUS NEIGHBORHOOD. This is unpleasant stuff to contemplate. But it's refreshing to hear a Japanese leader speak in very stark terms about the country's national-security interests. Coming from a small opposition party, Ozawa probably will never be Prime Minister. But give him this much: He's publicly airing a very sensitive subject.

The reality is that Japan lives in an increasingly dangerous neighborhood, and confronting that reality is far healthier than ignoring it.